Apakah Bottom Emas sudah (hampir) dekat?

Apakah Bottom Emas sudah (hampir) dekat? (Bagian III)

March 8th, 2013 nico Leave a comment Go to comments

“The catalyst for a spike into the $2,500 to $3,000 price range will be an announcement by China, probably in late 2013 or 2014, that they have acquired 4,000 tonnes or more in their official reserve position.  This will put China on an equal footing with the US in terms of a gold-to-GDP ratio and validate gold as the real foundation of the international monetary system. Once that position is validated, gold will move to the $7,000 range in 2015 and beyond.  Any lower price level is deflationary and must be avoided at all costs by central banks.  The key is that the US and IMF do not want gold to achieve its full potential price until China has acquired its appropriate “share” of official gold reserves.  Any other outcome is unacceptable to China.”

– Jim Rickards

“My advice is to hold all gold positions and wait patiently for the correction to end.  Just before the huge 1979-80 surge, we saw a big ‘clean out’ correction in gold.  I believe history is about to repeat.”

– Richard Russell

Setelah 2 hari lalu membahas kemungkinan level rendah yang dicapai pada fase tekanan emas saat ini, selanjutnya mari kita sejumlah target yang mungkin dicapai emas dalam jangka pendek dan menengah ke depan. Jika memang harga emas mampu bangkit untuk naik kembali, seberapa jauh pergerakan yang akan dilaluinya?

Bagi yang belum mengetahui proyeksi dari Dr. Stephen Leeb, seorang Chairman & Chief Investment Officer di Leeb Capital Management, yang mengatakan bahwa emas akan menuju ke level $20.000!  Maka dapat membaca penjelasannya berikut, dari sebuah wawancara dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) pada 26 Februari 2013:

“There is no question that Bernanke pulled the rug out from under the gold bears today. Their argument has been that the Fed is starting to turn a little bit more hawkish. We had some propaganda coming out which indicated the Fed was going to end QE at some point this year.

 

All of the sudden Ben Bernanke is in front of Congress today basically saying, ‘Hey, wait a minute, this (QE) thing is working. Risks of deflation have gone down dramatically, and we don’t see any major risk of getting out of these bonds.’ Well, give me a break.

The Fed is going to continue with its easy money policy for as long as the eye can see. This is important when looking at the recent action in gold.

90% to 95% of the smash in gold was related to the propaganda coming out of the Fed that they would end QE, and that is complete nonsense. It’s just not going to happen no matter how much disinformation and propaganda comes out of the Fed.

But Bernanke is also trying to say, ‘We have a plan for getting rid of it (QE).’ Well, I’d love to have a dollar for every politician that’s said they have a plan. There is no plan. Who is going to buy $3 trillion worth of US debt? There is an old saying, ‘You can always get out if you want to. The question is what the price is?’ The price in this case will most likely be 20% interest rates and inflation that goes through the roof. The Fed can fool some of the investors some of the time, but not all of them all of the time.

I think the gold market is waking up to this. There is no plan for getting out of this. There can’t be a plan for getting out of this. The reality is the Fed is getting deeper and deeper into trouble here. So the Fed will continue doing what it’s doing, and that’s a recipe for some sort of Armageddon, meaning some sort of point where the Fed ultimately can’t sell their bonds. At that point we will see massive inflation. I hate to say it, but that’s where we are headed.

This is when the real bull market in gold will start. If you look at gold as a percentage of reserves, it has remained at only about 1.5% of reserves since the beginning of the century. If you go back to the 1970s, gold was about 10% of overall reserves. This time around, because the conditions are much worse than in the 1970s, it’s possible that gold could reach 20% of reserves.

Because there is a compounding effect each year from the money printing, this takes gold to levels you don’t even want to talk about. We are talking about $20,000 gold, and possibly more. This is why when people look back on this gold correction it will just be a blip on a chart that you will need a magnifying glass to see.”

Namun tak lengkap rasanya melihat outlook emas tanpa mengetengahkan pandangan dari seorang profesional, dan sekaligus seorang analis terkemuka di Citigroup, Tom Fitzpatrick.  Dia adalah salah satu analis favorit saya dan prediksinya saat bull market emas senantiasa dinanti pelaku pasar.

Fitzpatrick yakin bahwa prospeknya untuk kenaikan ganda harga emas dari levelnya saat ini mungkin akan terlalu ‘konservatif’. Dalam tulisan terbarunya mengetengahkan 6 grafik emas yang menarik yang menggambarkan potensi kenaikan emas luar biasa ke depannya:

“We continue to maintain our bullish medium-to-long-term view on gold against not just the USD but paper currencies in general. At the same time, we believe that the equity market rally is very mature and susceptible to a deeper correction. Within this dynamic we believe we are closing in on a period that will see Gold significantly outperform most currencies and asset classes going forward.

We continue to believe that the present pattern in gold over the past 17 months remains similar to that seen during the 16 month consolidation in 2006-2007 before it moved higher again. Very strong support continues to exist in the $1,520-$1,530 area and we still believe this to be a platform for the next leg higher (see chart above).

 

A move back above the $1,625-1,640 area is the first objective in this respect, followed by $1,670- 1,700. However, it is a break of the $1,790-1,800 area on a weekly close basis that would signal a topside breakout. A move towards $2,055-2,060 would be the target on that break.

 

A move similar to that seen in the 2007-2008 breakout would suggest as high as $2,400-2,500, while our longer term target (3-4 years’ time) remains in the $3,400-3,500 area. This target comes from extrapolating the percentage change of the 1970-1980 bull market in gold, but extracting the final 5 week surge in Dec. 1979 – Jan. 1980 caused by the Russian invasion of Afghanistan.

Without fiscal responsibility, as forced on Congress by Volcker in the early 1980’s, it is hard to see how one can argue for a sustainable down move in Gold. As it stands, the present chart suggests that gold should return to the high of the trend. What if you believe, as some people suggest, that by the end of this political cycle in late 2016 we are looking at a debt limit around USD 21 to 22 trillion (see chart below)?

Correlates amazingly closely to our $3,400-3,500 target on Gold in a similar timeframe.

This is important in showing that the gold trend is one of appreciating against paper currencies (Not just the USD). If one looks at the low of the USD-index posted in March of 2008, it is now over 15% higher. During the same period gold is over 70% higher against the USD. Bottom line is that gold has outperformed an appreciating USD over that time.

 

This also serves to emphasize that our view of both the USD-Index and gold heading higher in the future is not inconsistent. We expect gold to continue to outperform paper currencies but for the USD to be a relative outperformer in the paper currency world.

 

(Japanese yen gold) has already traded to new trend highs in recent weeks although remains far from the all-time high posted in January 1980 (see chart below) above 200,000 (Over 35% above here).

Gold has strongly outperformed a very bullish fixed income market over more than a decade with the present pattern once again looking like a consolidation before higher (see chart below).

So bottom line: We expect the medium to long term trend of Gold appreciation to continue. We expect this appreciation to be not just against the USD, but most paper currencies as the World continues to try and print their way out of this mess.

 

We expect gold to in fact outperform most asset classes although crude (Brent) looks like it could perform even better. It is worth noting that even absent that final surge (in 1980), the gold price went up by a multiple of 5 from 1976-1979 which makes our expectation of a doubling in price over the next 3 years look, if anything, conservative.”

Laporan emas terakhir kali ini datang dari Approximity di Jerman, yang berisi 2 grafik emas yang juga menarik untuk diperhatikan beserta ulasan-ulasan mengapa harga emas diproyeksikannya akan naik hingga $4.866 dalam 2 tahun ke depan.

“They say history does not repeat, but it rhymes sometimes.  Ever since gold assumed its multi-decade low in 1999 (the infamous Brown Bottom) and then, a year or two later, started its rise in a now more than a decade long bull market, there have been five prominent price spikes: May of 2001 with $288.35, on February of 2003 with $385.00, on May of 2006 with $725.75, on March of 2008 with $1,023.50, and on September of 2011 with $1,896.50.

Expressed differently, they seem to come in pairs.  Furthermore, the rise within the pairs (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) was 34% and 41%, while from one pair to the next (2 to 3 and 4 to 5), if we assume that the most recent fifth spike belongs to a pair as well, it was 89% and 85%.  If we take the middle of these respective moves, and also extrapolate the times between them into the future, we could try and guess what a sixth and a seventh price spike could look like (see also chart below).  Our guess would be June of 2013 at $2,603.37 (spike 6) and January of 2015 at $4,865.73 (spike 7).  So, should you be surprised if you would see a $1,000 move in gold in the first half of 2013?  We think you shouldn’t.

The chart below shows one of the potentially most important cycles in macroeconomics.  It plots the Blue Chips of the U.S. industry (the Dow Jones Industrial Average) priced in ounces of gold.  The chart shows that when one real asset (industry) is priced in another real asset (gold), one does not get ever increasing prices, but instead major price CYCLES.  The chart implies that the amplitude of these DJIA:Gold cycles (possibly due to the increasing degree of leverage in the system) has ever grown since December 23, 1913, when the Federal Reserve Act established the second U.S. central bank, the “Federal Reserve” as we know it today.  A target of the DJIA:Gold ratio below 1:1 seems possible.”

Dan di akhir laporan ini, saya kembali menghadirkan sebuah gambar lucu agar tetap ceria menjalani hari ini walaupun apa yang terjadi:

Dibuat Tanggal 06 Maret 2013

http://nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id/2013/03/08/apakah-bottom-emas-sudah-hampir-dekat-bagian-iii/