Permintaan Emas Cina Tidak Akan Pernah Berhenti

Permintaan Emas Cina Tidak Akan Pernah Berhenti

February 19th, 2014 Leave a comment Go to comments

“We believe that the resolution of the disconnect between paper and physical gold will be a dramatic upside re-pricing of the real thing. Most important is the steady migration of physical gold bars held in Western vaults to China and other parts of Asia, where they seem unlikely to be returned, other than for exorbitant ransom.”

– John Hathaway: 07 January 2014

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“Gold is the wild card. The gold price and investor positioning today reflects near unanimous negative sentiment on gold’s prospects, based on expected higher global interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar as the U.S. economy recovers. Any disappointment to this scenario will likely drive the gold price higher, making it one of the better hedges against the risk the U.S. economic recovery falters.”

– Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy for ETF Securities

 

Paper gold (investasi emas di pasar finansial) di negara-negara maju mungkin bergerak berdasarkan keinginan-keinginan para pemburu keuntungan, namun ketika investasi di pasar emas fisik dan minat Cina terhadapnya, maka satu kata yang menggambarkan pergerakannya adalah: unstoppable.

Di awal laporan ini, mari kita simak dengan seksama komentar salah seorang yang memiliki proyeksi akurat untuk pergerakan harga emas, seperti yang dijelaskannya dalam wawancara dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) belum lama ini.

Di bawah ini adalah yang dikatakan oleh William Kaye, yang 25 tahun lalu bekerja di Goldman Sachs di bagian mergers and acquisitions, berupa keyakinannya mengenai apa yang sedang terjadi di pasar emas dan bagaimana potensi harganya ke depan:

“The longer-term picture (for gold) is extremely bright.  The picture in China itself is phenomenal.  Right now China is, in terms of final demand, consuming virtually 100% of non-China global production of gold.  This is an amazing thing when you think about it….

China doesn’t export anything.  [People] need to think about that.  Chinese production is estimated at slightly over 400 metric tons (each year), which is not huge, but they don’t export that (gold).  All of that (gold) by law belongs to the People’s Bank of China, and if my sources are right, doesn’t even go through Shanghai.

Everything that is brought into China that isn’t produced domestically, and doesn’t go directly to the PBOC, is required by law in China to go through Shanghai.  So if we track deliveries into Shanghai, final deliveries into the market were almost 2,200 tons last year.

Well, since China’s production is a little over 400 tons, and total global production is estimated at between 2,600 and 2,700 tons, what that tells you is that China accounted for approximately 100% of all external (global gold) production — all non-China production.

So where is everything else coming from (to fill the rest of global gold demand)?  Where is the 1,200 tons that, including smuggling, went into India?  How about all of the gold that went into Russia and into the Middle-East?  This is what people need to focus on.

And this is why what we are currently seeing can’t continue indefinitely.  The question is, at what stage does gold actually get liberated?  The setup would appear, as I look at the options structure and other things, that the bottom should be either late this quarter or possibly second quarter.  I’m doubtful that it can extend past that unless the setup changes dramatically from what I am looking at at the moment.”

I think for people who have enough money to live on, they’ve got cash and other assets they can draw on, that are looking for a deeply undervalued investment that has potentially a very high payoff over the next 1, 2, 3, 5 years, gold and precious metals are, in my book, unparalleled.  That’s how we’re set up.  This is something we’ve researched very carefully, and this is where I’ve got my own money.”

Selanjutnya Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang juga sering melaporkan demand Cina terhadap emas.

Berikut adalah 2 laporannya belum lama ini, yang tentunya layak Anda perhatikan:

1)   Overheard In A Gold Vault In Singapore: “We Need Additional Capacity”, China’s Appetite Is “Insatiable” (January 28th)

Yesterday we covered the supply side of the gold market from the perspective of global mints, which were kind enough to advise that they “can’t meet the demand, even if we work overtime.” Today, courtesy of Bloomberg, we take a closer look at the demand aspect of the physical gold market, which as most know by now can be described with just one word: China.

But first, while we already know that global mints are working 24/7 and still are unable to meet record demand, in spite of or due to, plunging prices of paper gold, here is how the market looks from the perspective of one of the biggest gold refiners in the world: MKS SA’s PAMP refiner in Switzerland, “whose bullion sales to China surged to a record as demand rose for coins, bars and jewelry. PAMP Managing Director Mehdi Barkhordar, who credited China’s “insatiable” appetite for a sales boost of as much as 20 percent last year, remains optimistic even as growth in the world’s second-largest economy slows. “The demand in China is off its peak, but still respectable,” he said last week.”

Off its peak? Really – where? Certainly not in Singapore where the largest provider of precious-metals logistics and storage, Brink’s, is adding room on top of a vault the company opened in 2012 at the Singapore Freeport building next to Changi International Airport, with a sleek, modernist lobby and a twisting, polished-steel sculpture by Ron Arad that stands 5 meters high. Inside, the gold bars are protected by prison-like barriers, two body scanners and 8-ton, fireproof gates.

      Explain to us how this is “off its peak”:

“We need additional capacity, so we have to take further space,” said Baskaran Narayanan, the 45-year-old Singapore general manager for Richmond, Virginia-based Brink’s. “There’s a surge in demand for precious metals in Asia, and one can see the focus and movement from the west to the east.”

A new Brink’s vault in Singapore set to open by March will be the company’s fifth in the city state, said Narayanan, who spent two decades in the security industry. The 154-year-old company also is adding space in Hong Kong and mainland China to meet growing storage demand, said Guy Bullen, the firm’s senior vice president for the Asia-Pacific region. Brink’s said Asia-Pacific revenue grew 12 percent to $128.9 million in the first nine months of 2013, more than any other region. Deutsche Bank said in June it started a storage facility in Singapore that can hold as much as 200 tons, its largest outside London. UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, opened one to keep bars for its wealth-management clients in Asia. In Shanghai, Malca-Amit Global Ltd. opened a vault in November that can store 2,000 tons, or a pile valued at $80 billion.

      Oh, that kind of “off its peak” – we get it now.

Of course, the biggest paradox is that China continues to be grateful to the US momentum-investing community, which continues to dump paper-gold representations such as the GLD ETF, and as Bloomberg reports, “investor sales through gold ETPs wiped $73.4 billion from the value of the funds last year and holdings reached the lowest since October 2009 this month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETP and which is listed in New York, accounted for 64 percent of global sales last year.” And as a result of the ongoing liquidation of paper gold, those who couldn’t care less about monthly or annual momentum-boosted P&L (so eliminate the entire US hedge fund community), and just care about buying brick after brick of physical gold at the lowest possible prices are thanking their lucky stars they have a bunch of dumb 2 and 20 chasing paper sellers to do their job for them, especially if and when the PBOC does announce the real amount of gold reserves it has accumulate over the past five years (which are now order of magnitude above the official ~1000 tons of gold last disclosed in 2009).

So going back to the Chinese demand, and the entire topic of west to east gold migration, here is what we know.

“In the western world, we’ve enjoyed a popular bull market in gold, mainly via the gold ETFs, and it appears to be over,” Morris said. “In China, there are a large number of new outlets, including many banks in the provinces, that are selling gold bars. Many Chinese people, who’ve had limited access to gold in the past, think it’s a good idea to have a bar or two as a long-term investment.”

The U.K. shipped 1,291 tons to the refining hub of Switzerland last year through November, more than the previous seven years combined and equal to more than five months of mine output, according to data from European Union statistics service Eurostat and Barclays Plc. Macquarie Group Ltd. says that’s a sign of the movement from west to east.

      And once in Switzerland, the gold is refined, processed and sold onward to…

Hong Kong exported a record 1,108.8 tons to China in 2013, more than double the total in 2012, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Mainland China doesn’t publish the data.

Consumer purchases of gold in China surged 30 percent in the 12 months through September to 996.3 tons, overtaking demand in India, where usage gained 24 percent to 977.6 tons, the World Gold Council estimates. In the first nine months of 2013, China was at 797.8 tons, already eclipsing its full-year record of 778.6 tons, set in 2011, and full-year usage may exceed India’s all-time high 1,006.5 tons in 2010.

Oh, that “off the peak.”  Ok then. And let’s not forget that while Chinese gold demand is at an absolutely all time record high (and thank you BIS operative Benoit Gilson and Mikael Charoze for those well-timed gold slams), another place that is just waiting for the opportunity to buy as much gold as it legally can is the former larget gold buyer in the world – India.

India’s government choked off inbound shipments by raising import taxes on gold three times last year to help pare a trade imbalance that has weighed on the national currency, the rupee. The 24 percent rise in Indian jewelry, bar and coin purchases to 977.6 tons in the 12 months through September lagged the 30 percent gain to 996.3 tons in China, the gold council said.

How much latent demand is there? A lot: ‘Premiums in India reached a record $160 above the London price in December.” In fact, demand is so great even with restrictions, that refiners have been forced to add work shifts! Nobody complaining about raising the minimum wage here…

“India will consume gold for a long, long time because, for the Indian farmer, gold is one of his best assets,” said Barkhordar, who runs the PAMP refinery in Switzerland. “He will keep this gold for his daughter’s dowry, but he can also use it in case he’s short of cash for the next crop.”

The surge in orders meant some parts of the refinery worked three shifts instead of the usual two, Barkhordar said. It takes five to six working days to turn mined or scrap gold into a bar, he said. The 200 or so employees at the 110,000-square-foot PAMP facility, located about 3 miles from the Argor-Heraeus SA and Valcambi SA refineries, make bars ranging from 0.3 gram to 12.5 kilograms.

And finally, there is the biggest wildcard of all: the Arabs, who have untold wealth in fiat and otherwise electronic format that one day soon, supposedly before the markets crash and the western central banks lose control, need protection.

Trade also has expanded in Dubai. The emirate accounts for about 25 percent of global physical gold trading, and bullion demand grew eightfold in the past six to 10 years, said Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange Chief Executive Officer Gary Anderson. The DGCX plans to list a spot gold contact this year to add to its futures offering.

The bottom line comes from Jeremy East, who moved to Hong Kong from London in June and is head of metals trading at Standard Chartered Plc. “Many of the positive drivers for gold prices in the past five years have started to disappear. At the same time, we have seen a significant increase in physical demand for gold in Asia, especially China. The expectation is that Asia is going to play a much bigger role for setting the international prices for gold and also for the whole metals complex going forward.”

Of course it will, but for now it is counting its lucky stars that courtesy of ETFs, the BIS and various central and private banks desperate to make their worthless pieces of fiat paper appear valuable by manipulating the price of gold lower, it can accumulate gold at such a torrid pace and at such blue light special prices. It knows very well this won’t last. However, in the meantime it will remove as much deliverable product from the paper gold market that when the real delivery demands begin (wink wink Bundesbank), then the real fun starts.

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2)   China Surpasses India As Biggest Buyer Of Gold Following Record 2013 Imports, Consumption (February 10th)

Two weeks ago we learned what many had already known just by extrapolating simple trends: in 2013 Chinese net imports of gold from Hong Kong alone rose to over 1000 tons of gold, or 1158 to be precise – 100 tons more than China’s official gold holdings of 1054 tons which have not “budged” in the past four years – following another significant net monthly import of 94.8 tons of the precious metal in December (and 126.6 gross). This means total gold imports in 2013 was more than double the 557 tons imported in 2012, and as a result China has now officially surpassed India as the world’s biggest buyer of gold (although the title may swing back to India once gold price controls are relaxed, or if the government were to count all the gold smuggled into the country via illegal channels).

As the chart below shows, no matter what the price of paper gold does, the Chinese bid remains unwavering.

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Reuters summarizes China’s insatiable appetite for the yellow metal:

China’s gold consumption jumped 41 percent in 2013 to exceed 1,000 tons for the first time, an industry body said on Monday, as a sharp slide in prices attracted buyers for jewellery and bullion.

The demand surge has helped China become the No. 1 gold consumer and should support prices, which took a hit last year from expectations of a tapering of commodities-friendly economic stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a drop in demand in the other major buyer India.

Gold consumption in China grew to 1,176.40 tons last year, with jewellery demand climbing 43 percent to 716.50 tons and bullion demand soaring 57 percent to 375.73 tons, the China Gold Association said on its website.

Chinese demand hit a record as gold prices fell for the first time in 13 years amid an improving global economy and a rally in equities. Prices tumbled 28 percent in 2013.

“The sharply lower prices attracted a lot of Chinese consumers looking for bargains,” said Chen Min, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in Shenzhen.

“Gold will continue to be an attractive investment in China in the near term as prices look steady near $1,200 an ounce,” Chen said.

      As a reminder, official gold holdings are not included in these numbers:

China’s gold consumption figures do not include demand from the central bank, whose gold reserves stand at 33.89 million ounces (1,054 tons), unchanged since April 2009, according to the latest figures on the central bank’s website.

Regarding said PBOC gold holdings, Reuters confirms what our readers have known since September 2011:

China last announced a rise in its gold reserves in April 2009 and has not revised the figure since, though there had been recent market speculation that the bank had been accumulating gold reserves and would announce a new figure.

Of course, we doubt anyone would be surprised by the unveiling of any updated PBOC holdings especially after one considers just how ravenous China’s gross imports since our September 2011 article have been, summarized best by the following chart.

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As we have said before: keep an eye on the “gold holdings” of the GLD and other US paper gold ETFs, whose drop in holdings for now has offset Chinese accumulation on the margin. Once GLD gold holdings solidly resume their climb higher, that will be the key upward gold price inflection point.

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Macneil Curry dari BofAML belum lama ini menyebut bahwa gold is coming to life:

 

Via BofAML’s Macneil Curry,

Gold breaks pivotal resistance

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Across assets gold has been the lead market against the US $; having forged its base back in mid December. Now, it has broken above its 150d average (1295) for the 1st time since Jan’13. This average has been an excellent barometer of the medium term trend and points to further gains. We target the confluence of resistance between 1355/1374 and potentially beyond.

 

Meskipun terjadi breakout (MA-150 hari) dari kenaikan harga emas sejak pekan lalu, laporan bulanan dari Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective masih meyakini bahwa emas masih dalam sentimen bearish besarnya.

Oleh karena itu, kewaspadaan sungguh diperlukan saat ini dan saya sarankan agar para investor jangan dulu mengejar kenaikan harga emas ini.

Di bawah ini pandangan terbaru dari Elliott Wave International mengenai perkembangan harga emas:

“Gold has declined 35% from its September 2011 peak at $1,921.50 and continues to move in line with our forecast.

In November and December, GMP discussed the large investment losses incurred by hedge funds and governments, some of whom bet heavily on a gold rally to new all-time highs.

Gold’s decline last year has forced the Swiss National Bank, one of the world’s biggest holders of the metal, to cancel dividends to shareholders for the first time since the Bank was founded in 1907, 107 years ago.

The Swiss central bank said on January 6 that the precious metal’s selloff created a $10 billion loss for the year.

The December issue of EWT noted that gold sentiment has changed.

Still, our forecast remains on track: gold’s bear market is not complete.

The wave labels on the chart show the two high-probability potentials for prices in the coming months.

If wave (5) down started at the August 28 high at $1,434, gold will soon decline to new lows in the final wave of the impulse structure that started at the 2011 peak.

Another possibility is that wave (4) could be tracing out a triangle.

Under this scenario, wave C started at the December 31 low at $1,184.23 and will carry gold to $1,300-$1.350.

Both structures indicate that gold needs one more new low.

Thereafter, the largest countertrend rally since the peak will develop.”

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Conclusion

Emas masih bergerak dari negara-negara barat ke timur, bahkan cnderung bergerak lebih cepat karena Cina diberi umpan oleh turunnya harga emas di pasar ETF serta mulai adanya produksi baru dari tambang-tambang global.

Ketika para investor barat sadar mengenai fakta bahwa jika Cina terus membeli emas di tengah penurunan harganya – bahkan tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda akan mengakhirinya – maka akan hilang emas fisik di pasar-pasar tradisional, karena semuanya sudah diserap Cina dan konsumen-konsumen Asia lainnya.

Dan jika kemudian terjadi kenaikan harga besar-besaran, maka itulah yang menjadi penyebabnya!

Namun demikian, emas saat ini masih dalam downtrend-nya selama masih di bawah level $1525.

Masih banyak waktu yang diperlukan emas untuk menembus resistance pentingnya itu. Untuk indikasi awal, jika kenaikan mampu menembus ke atas $1434 maka menunjukkan perubahan tren, seperti yang dapat Anda lihat dengan jelas di grafik Tom Fitzpatrick (analis Citi) berikut:

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Sebaliknya, waspadai ada daily close di bawah $1180 yang akan memberikan sinyal bahwa downtrend masih akan berlanjut dan akan membawa harga pada bagian akhir dari koreksi tahunan emas dengan target $1000-$1100.

Juga perlu diingat bahwa data Commitment of Traders menunjukkan bahwa para investor kian meningkatkan short position emas di pasar berjangka dan long-position spekulan sudah mencapai tertinggi sejak akhir Oktober 2013.

Ini mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga emas ini sedang menghadapi resistance kuat.

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah dolar AS biasanya memperoleh dukungan musiman hingga musim panas.

Jika gejolak di pasar negara berkembang berlanjut lagi, maka akan mendorong penguatan dolar AS karena dana spekulatif akan kembali ke pasar AS.

Dan biasanya penguatan dolar AS dapat menghambat kenaikan harga emas.

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

 

Dibuat Tanggal 18 Februari 2014

sumber : http://nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id/2014/02/19/permintaan-emas-cina-tidak-akan-pernah-berhenti/

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