Outlook Pasar Emas 2013
“The end game is an inflationary/currency crisis, dislocation across credit and derivative markets, and the transition to a new monetary system, with a new reserve currency replacing the dollar. This makes gold and silver the “go-to” assets for capital preservation.”
Pertama-tama yang ingin saya ucapkan adalah semoga seluruh pembaca tulisan ini memperoleh keberuntungan dan keberhasilan yang terbaik di tahun 2013 ini!
Meskipun harga emas senantiasa naik dalam 12 tahun terakhir, saya tetap berpandangan sangat bullish – yang mungkin dapat mengejutkan banyak orang dan akan menjadi salah satu aset dengan kinerja terbaik di tahun 2013 yang akan kita jalani ini.
Banyak investor awalnya masih berpandangan bahwa logam mulia ini tak lebih merupakan ‘peninggalan masa lalu’ yang tidak akan produktif dan juga tidak memiliki tingkat keuntungan, sehingga bagi mereka enggan untuk membelinya. Namun secara perlahan namun pasti orang-orang pun mulai sadar pada kenyataan bahwa emas merupakan ‘tempat berlindung’ mereka saat ekonomi sedang berada dalam ketidakpastian.
Terlebih jika inflasi mulai menunjukkan kenaikannya, dan menurut saya itu akan terjadi, maka emas akan menjadi salah satu aset terbaik agar daya beli Anda tetap terpelihara. Yang tak kalah penting, jangan lupa bahwa logam mulia – terutama emas dan perak – adalah aset moneter yang sudah ratusan tahun berfungsi sebagai alat tukar (uang).
Malah menurut pemikiran saya, emas merupakan satu-satunya REAL MONEY (alat tukar sesungguhnya) yang mampu mempertahankan nilainya dari waktu ke waktu, sementara uang (yang biasa kita gunakan) atau diistilahkan dengan fiat currencies akan berakhir sebagai kertas tak berharga karena ulah bank-bank sentral. Jika Anda tidak percaya, coba baca buku mengenai sejarah moneter maka Anda akan menemukan sendiri mengapa uang kertas akan kembali pada nilai intrinsiknya, yakni nol.
Sebelum kita melihat sejumlah prospek untuk tahun ke depan, secara singkat saya ingin mengingatkan Anda bahwa Amerika Serikat secara teknis terhindar dari fiscal cliff. Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge juga dengan singkat mengulas hal ini di hari terakhir 2012 lalu dalam tulisannya yang berjudul “US To Officially Go Over The Fiscal Cliff”:
“As we forecast back in November, it is now official that the House will not vote on any deal out of the Senate, assuming there is one, later today, which means America will officially slide off the Fiscal Cliff. And now cue everyone being very hopeful and optimistic a deal will get done momentarily, if not sooner, in 2013. Of course, we all know just how far optimism takes America’s dysfunctional Congress. The biggest irony in all of this is that the only winners today were the much hated “1%”-ers, whose taxes may or may not go up, who just got to book major year end profits on this last minute ramp. The remainder of America’s population can quietly look forward to 2013 with “hope” and “optimism” that in 2013 Congress will finally stop being dysfunctional. Good luck. Oh, and before we forget, America just breached its debt ceiling: now the pillaging of various government retirement funds begins.
Finally, since the US is now officially over the cliff, does this mean that Ben Bernanke can finally get to work? Recall his words:
“if the economy actually went off the fiscal cliff, our assessment, the CBO’s assessment, outside forecasters, all think that that would have very significant adverse effects on the economy and on the unemployment rate. And so, on the margin, we would try to do what we could. We would perhaps increase a bit.”
Is it time to increase QE just “a bit” then?”
Kembali lagi ke emas, yang kini mulai menarik jika dilihat dari sudut pandang fundamental maupun teknikalnya. Peter Krauth, dari Money Morning, baru-baru ini menguraikan 5 kekuatan yang akan mendorong emas menembus rekor tertingginya kembali dalam tulisannya yang berjudul “2013 Gold Price Forecast: Expect Gold to Deliver Another Record-Setting Year”:
“No two bull markets are ever the same, and gold is no exception.
During the last secular gold bull market in the 1970s, gold rose from $35 in 1968 all the way to $200 by late 1974.
Then the unthinkable happened. Between late 1974 and mid-1976, gold prices were cut in half, dropping from about $200 to $100.
At the time, many gold investors sold out in disgust, never to return.
But then a funny thing occurred. Gold prices started to climb again, rising from $100 in mid-1976 all the way to $800 by January 1980.
And anyone who was fortunate enough to own gold at $35 earned better than 20 times their investment in just 12 years.
Twenty-one years later, a new bull market began. Since 2001, gold has consistently performed in what now appears to be a record-setting run.
In fact, since 2001 the average return on gold is now just shy of 18% annually over the last 11 years.
I know of no other major asset that has turned in this kind of performance — ever. This rise in gold prices is simply unmatched.
This is what a stealth bull market looks like, one that I fully expect will keep powering on.
Now, let’s have a look at where gold prices might be headed in 2013…
2013 Gold Price Forecast
Gold began the year at $1,600 an ounce. Should we get average returns in this calendar year as well, gold could finish 2012 around $1,880. At those levels, gold prices would begin 2013 just shy of the all-time high set last year, right around the $1,900 mark.
If we assume an average return again next year, then gold could reach $2,200 or better in 2013. In fact, I believe $2,200 gold is quite likely in 2013.
After all, none of the fundamentals supporting gold prices have gone away. Instead, they’ve only become even more entrenched.
In fact, here are five factors I’ve identified that will power the gold bull market upwards for several more years to come.
The Feverish Growth of Fiat Money: Take a look at this chart. It’s a picture that tells you what you need to know about fiat money. As you can see, the U.S. and most of the developed world is printing money much faster than the amount of new gold being brought to the market. Here’s the thing: The chart only shows you what was created in an hour. Imagine what the same chart would look like if it were a year. Better yet, how about five years — or more. The bottom line is that the printing presses are bullish for gold.
The Feverish Demand For Gold: As central banks continue to print, individuals are continuing to feverishly buy gold, especially in the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, which in 2002 accounted for 23% of world gold demand. Today, just these two nations alone make up nearly half of all demand at 47%. This is just the beginning.
Even Central Banks Are Buying: Central banks, especially in developing nations, are buying and hoarding gold at a breakneck pace. So far in 2012, they’ve bought 493 tons, already surpassing last year’s 457 tons. Many believe this is part of a long-term trend, providing solid support for gold prices in 2013.
High Demand Meets Short Supply: The other side of the equation is supply. The gold mining industry is struggling to find more gold. According to Barrick Gold Corp.’s (NYSE: ABX) CEO, the industry as a whole spent a record $8 billion in 2011 to explore for gold. And even with such massive resources on the hunt for this precious metal, discoveries are declining. Bloomberg reported that in 1991 there were 11 gold discoveries, yet in 2011 there were only three. Of course, you know what happens when there’s an imbalance like this-prices rise.
My Favorite Reason For $2,200 Gold in 2013: Here’s another reason to be bullish: The vast majority of analysts consistently forecast too low and are even predicting declining gold prices farther out. But guess what?… They’ve been consistently wrong for years. Take a look:
The truth is that signs the yellow metal’s bull market will soon end are scarce indeed. Meanwhile, breakeven costs continue to rise among gold producers, meaning the price floor keeps rising.
That’s why I expect gold prices to set a new all-time record nominal price in 2013, and to reach the $2,200 level in the process. Smart investors will embrace this trend.”
Seperti Anda dapat lihat dari grafik mingguan pada tulisan Peter Krauth di atas, emas sudah mengalami kenaikan dalam 11 tahun. Tetapi menurut saya ini baru merupakan awalnya, karena fase ke-3 untuk bullish trend, yakni fase yang akseleratif, masih belum terjadi.
Egon von Greyerz, seorang pendiri dan Managing Partner dari Matterhorn Asset Management AG (MAM) dan GoldSwitzerland yang berbasis di Zurich, juga berpandangan demikian serta menyebutkan sejumlah faktor yang akan mendukung kenaikan emas dalam tulisannya berikut:
What catalyst will trigger Gold’s parabolic rise
Seldom in history are investment decisions self-evident. But today we have such a situation.
Gold is the only real and the only honest money. Gold reflects governments’ deceitful actions in destroying the value of paper money. For the last 100 years since the creation of the Fed and especially since 1971 when the US dollar was no longer backed by gold, paper currencies have been on a road to destruction. They have lost 97-99% since 1913 and around 80% since 1999.
In 2013 we will enter the final phase which eventually will lead to the total destruction of most paper currencies. The two principal factors leading to this are: (emphasis is mine)
- Exponential rise in government deficits
- Unlimited money printing
There is absolutely no chance that governments can or will stop the deficit spending. Any government even mentioning the word austerity will be thrown out very quickly. And even if serious austerity measures were attempted, they would just lead to a spiraling downturn of the economy creating even bigger deficits.
The consequences of the massive money printing that the world will experience will be:
- Collapsing currencies
- Hyperinflationary depression
- Social unrest
So will these events happen in a long drawn-out fashion or will it all happen abruptly? Both the technical and fundamental setup we are seeing now makes it more likely that events will unravel quickly. The fragility of the world economy is greater than any time in history. Major nations such as Japan, USA, UK and most EU countries are bankrupt and living on borrowed time. And the banking system is only surviving due to false valuation of toxic assets. The situation is like an avalanche being triggered with that last snowflake being enough to set the whole thing off. The trigger could be anything from a dollar collapse, to Japan imploding or Greece exiting the EU. It doesn’t even have to be a major event due to the total instability of the world economy and financial system.
No one has any possibility to influence these inevitable consequences, neither governments or central banks nor individuals. The only measures that individuals can take are to protect their own assets and their family. For investors who are fortunate enough to have savings, the absolutely best way to protect wealth is to own physical gold (and possibly some silver) and to store it outside the banking system.
The case for gold as the ultimate wealth preservation investment is irrefutable. Whilst paper money and all assets that were financed by the credit bubble will collapse in real terms, gold will continue to represent stable purchasing power as it has done during 5,000 years.
For anyone who doubts what will happen to gold as government deficits surge and money printing accelerates, just look at the graph below. This shows US government debt against the price of gold. A chart of world central bank balance sheets exploding gives the same picture. And the picture tells us that a parabolic rise of debt and gold is likely to be next. This fits also with Alf Field’s technical projection that the next target is $4,500-$5,000 for gold. We could see that target already in 2013.
For anyone who believes that gold is overbought and overvalued – DON’T! As I have already said, gold just reflects the other side of paper currency destruction and will continue to do so. We recommended up to 50% allocation to physical gold in 2002 at $300. Today we would see 50% as an absolute minimum. No other asset will give the same protection as gold.
So 2013 could be an Annus Horribilis for the world economy, the financial system, as well as socially and geopolitically. Everyone will be affected but being prepared and protected will make it easier to deal with.”
Di akhir tulisan saya, akan diketengahkan sejumlah pesan yang terekam antara pilot dan pusat kendali menara pesawat:
Tower: “Delta 351, you have traffic at 10 o’clock, 6 miles!”
Delta 351: “Give us another hint! We have digital watches!”
Tower: “TWA 2341, for noise abatement, turn right 45 degrees.”
TWA 2341: “Center, we are at 35,000 feet. How much noise can we make up here?”
Tower: “Sir, have you ever heard the noise a 747 makes when it hits a 727?”
From an unknown aircraft waiting in a very long takeoff queue: “I’m f…ing bored!”
Ground Traffic Control: “Last aircraft transmitting, identify yourself immediately!”
Unknown aircraft: “I said I was f…ing bored, not f…ing stupid!”
A DC-10 had come in a little hot and thus had an exceedingly long rollout after touching down.
San Jose Tower noted: “American 751, make a hard right turn at the end of the runway, if you are able. If you are not able, take the Guadeloupe exit off Highway 101, make a right at the lights and return to the airport.”
A Pan Am 727 flight, waiting for start clearance in Munich, overheard the following:
Lufthansa (in German): “Ground, what is our start clearance time?”
Ground (in English): “If you want an answer, you must speak in English.”
Lufthansa (in English): “I am a German, flying a German airplane, in Germany. Why must I speak English?”
Unknown voice from another plane (in a beautiful British accent): “Because you lost the bloody war!”
The German air controllers at Frankfurt Airport are renowned as a short-tempered lot. They not only expect one to know one’s gate parking location, but how to get there without any assistance from them. So it was with some amusement that we (a Pan Am 747) listened to the following exchange between Frankfurt ground control and a British Airways 747, call sign Speedbird 206.
Speedbird 206: “Frankfurt, Speedbird 206! Clear of active runway.”
Ground: “Speedbird 206. Taxi to gate Alpha One-Seven.”
The BA 747 pulled onto the main taxiway and slowed to a stop.
Ground: “Speedbird, do you not know where you are going?”
Speedbird 206: “Stand by, Ground, I’m looking up our gate location now.”
Ground (with quite arrogant impatience): “Speedbird 206, have you not been to Frankfurt before?”
Speedbird 206 (coolly): “Yes, twice in 1944, but it was dark – and I didn’t land.”
Dibuat Tanggal 02 Januari 2013
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